By Abdirahman Bulle

According to the Kenya Meteorological Department’s climate outlook for the October-November-December (OND) 2026 short rains season, above-average rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, including Wajir County. The rains are projected to be fairly well distributed, both in space and time. The outlook shows that El Nino is further strengthening and evolving towards a very strong event.

According to the regional climate outlook from IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), the greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience a wetter-than-normal October–December (OND) 2026 season as El Niño strengthens.

Different regions have different response to El Niño, depending on the season and other climate drivers. In East Africa, El Niño is associated with increased likelihood of above-normal and in some circumstances, heavy to extreme rainfall, especially during the OND short rains season.

For years, drought has been one of the most persistent threats to food security in Kenya, particularly in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs). Its effects are relatively easy to understand: when rains fail, rain-fed crop production becomes poor, pasture deteriorates, open water sources such as water pans dry up, and livestock productivity declines. Consequently, household incomes fall, food production declines and pastoralists become increasingly dependent on humanitarian assistance.

There are four categories of drought: Meteorological Drought (depressed rainfall), Hydrological Drought (water scarcity resulting from Meteorological Drought), Agricultural Drought (lack of soil moisture, hence affecting crop and vegetation condition) and Socio-Economic Drought (market closure and disruptions resulting from prolonged drought).

When an area experiences socio-economic drought, affected households record high levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above). For instance, according to the findings of the 2026 long rains food security assessment, around 30% of Wajir County’s population were acutely food insecure and in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. This translates to about 275,000 people. It’s worth noting that these figures do not include people who are already chronically food insecure.

For the past 3 or so years, Wajir County has been experiencing Hydrological Drought (severe water scarcity). Apart from the mushrooming of unplanned settlements, the recurring water crisis in the county can be attributed to the heavy rains received during the October–December 2023 El Niño rains which caused widespread destruction of water infrastructure. This included severe siltation, damage to inlets/embankments of water pans and the washing away of borehole piping systems.

Heavy rains

At first glance, above-average rainfall should be good news for food security. More rain means more water, improved pasture, replenished water pans, and potentially better crop yields for households in the Agro-Pastoral Livelihood Zone. However, rainfall becomes beneficial only when it falls at the right time and in the right amount. When rains become excessive, the same water that supports livestock production can become destructive.

Floods can wash away crops, drown livestock, destroy pasture, damage water infrastructure systems, contaminate water sources and destroy roads and bridges. Heavy rains also come with increased cases of both livestock and human diseases such as the Rift Valley Fever (RVF).

Wajir County’s food system is particularly vulnerable to this chain of events because livestock production, which is the main source of income and food for the pastoralists, remains highly dependent on rainfall.

The good news is that El Niño is not a completely unforeseen shock. Unlike some disasters that occur with little warning, El Niño can be anticipated months in advance. This creates an opportunity to move from a reactive humanitarian model to an anticipatory action model. The slow onset and relative predictability of El Niño make it possible to prepare before the impacts occur.

In the 1997 El Niño, Kenya received advance warning as early as July 1997. However, the warning did not receive sufficient prominence, hence poor preparedness. Unlike drought that mainly affects the accessibility pillar of food security, heavy rains and its resultant flooding affect both food availability and accessibility. Once the major transport infrastructure is affected, the end result is an unprecedented food security crisis since Wajir County largely relies on external markets in Nairobi, Thika, Meru, Isiolo, Garissa and Moyale for its food supplies.

Early warning information should trigger early action such as pre-positioning emergency food and non-food supplies, protecting livestock, supporting climate-resilient infrastructure, strengthening water infrastructure, clearing drainage systems, protecting strategic roads and markets, flood risk mapping, pre-positioning essential livestock vaccines and drugs, upscaling public health promotion and human disease surveillance, activating coordination structures, and providing anticipatory cash assistance to households identified as being at high risk.

In an era of increasingly frequent and interconnected climate shocks, early warning that does not trigger early action is simply immaterial information. It is early action that turns information into interventions that can prevent climate-related hazards from becoming a food-security crisis.

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Wajir Today. The article is intended to contribute to public debate and inclusive discourse. Any reference to individuals or events are made in good faith and in the public interest.  To contribute articles  to Wajir Today send your opinion ideas to newsroom@wajirtoday.co.ke