By Mohamed Jimale

Northern Kenya remains far removed from the realities of contemporary politics and governance. Leaders are elected based on clan arithmetic and the ballot is cast not for hope, change or plan.

In the runup to elections aspirants from the region form a lineup of clan-endorsed individuals using the threat of dominance and a bigoted ideology based on “what is in it for us as a clan”

A vote in the region becomes a currency bought with the fear of missing out from the next government and this is renewed in every cycle of election, sometimes even with new entrants but with the same philosophies.

Clan loyalties and local interests take precedence over broader political and development considerations. That is our political reality as a region.

Any MP, governor or senator who has been elected owes a significant part of their success to their sub-clan’s backing; no one can honestly claim otherwise.

The region has its own unique political dynamics, shaped by the diversity of clans and tribes, each with its own perspectives, interests and priorities. Understanding this reality is essential to the region’s political landscape.

Then comes President Ruto, who appears to be heavily relying on the region’s undivided support. However, the President should be cautious about leaders who have little to show for their time in office in terms of development projects after securing their seats.

The ability to mobilise crowds or command attention at political gatherings does not necessarily translate into an ability to deliver votes when it matters most.

The President would be better served by examining the actual scorecards of these leaders, if any exist, rather than relying on claims of influence and loyalty. What have they delivered to their constituents? What meaningful projects have they initiated or completed? What tangible improvements can their people point to after years in office? These are the questions that should determine their political relevance.

It would be a classic case of digging a well where there is no water in the ground: investing political capital, resources and expectations in people who may lack the genuine support they claim to possess.

Political alliances built on unverified promises can be deceptive, and the consequences of misreading the ground may only become apparent when the ballots are counted.

The 2027 General Election will therefore be a litmus test for the political class that has spent years relying on clan sympathy and emotional appeals. It will be an opportunity for voters to distinguish between genuine leadership and political theatrics, between those who have delivered and those who have merely perfected the art of political survival. Sympathy may win an election, and clan arithmetic may provide the numbers, but neither guarantees lasting legitimacy or continued loyalty.

The days of mistaking clan endorsement for personal political invincibility should be numbered. Every leader who has enjoyed the privilege of public office must be prepared to account for their record. The electorate may tolerate empty promises for a season, but the ballot eventually offers an opportunity to reassess the political contract.

For President Ruto, the lesson is simple: do not confuse public visibility with the capacity to deliver. The real test of influence is not how loudly one claims to command the people, but how convincingly one can demonstrate that trust when the moment of decision arrives. In 2027, the political class may discover that the ground they believed they controlled was never entirely theirs to begin with.